Sports Gambling Tips - Making Money From Betting
There are innumerable so-called gambling experts prepared to dish out information of their systems to'beat the bookie'or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won't do that. I will just give you information regarding bookmakers, odds and gambling for you really to use (or forget) as you see fit.
The first thing to say is that the vast majority of individuals who participate in gambling will be net losers over time. Here is the very reason you will find so many bookmakers making so much 꽁머니 throughout the world.
While bookmakers will often take big hits, for instance in case a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they put up markets that incorporate a margin, so they'll always make a gain on the medium to long haul, if not the short term. That is, as long as they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a specific event, bookmakers must first gauge the likelihood of that event occurring. To get this done they us various statistical models centered on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question.
Obviously, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and as the bookies in many cases are spot up with their assessments of the likelihood of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you may find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all of the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two types of when you would have handsome odds on the underdog. And might have won a good wedge.
The big bookmakers spend plenty of time and money ensuring they have the best odds that ensure they consider the perceived likelihood of the big event, and you can add that extra small bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event features a likelihood of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability will be 2/1. That is, two to at least one against that event occurring.
However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they'd set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this manner they have built-in the margin that ensures, over time, they'll profit from people betting with this selection. It's exactly the same concept as a casino roulette.
So how could you spot the occasions when bookmakers have it wrong? Well, it's easier said than done, but not even close to impossible.
One way is to obtain very good at mathematical modelling and put up a type that takes into consideration as lots of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this particular tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it seems,
it can never account fully for the minutiae of variables associated with individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it's just as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths will start getting pretty darn complicated.
Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that produce them probably the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So attempting to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it's more than likely the bookmaker setting the odds could have additional information than you.
However, if you're betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it's possible, through work reading plenty of stats, and general information gathering, you can begin to get a benefit over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).
And what would you do when you have a benefit in information terms? You follow the value.
Value betting is where you back a selection at odds that are more than the actual likelihood of an event occurring. So for instance, if you gauge the likelihood of a specific non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you discover a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you've a value bet in your hands.
The reason why being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built-in by the bookie) suggest a likelihood of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby's chances, so you've effectively built-in an 8% margin for yourself.
Obviously Grimsby (as is the case) might fluff their lines and neglect to win the match, and hence you could lose the bet. But when you continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you may not, over time, you will lose. Simple.
